Market Integrity & Resolution Eligibility Standards

Purpose

These standards govern whether a market is eligible to resolve to a substantive outcome ("Yes" or "No"), or whether it must instead resolve to "Cancelled."

The purpose of these standards is to preserve the integrity, fairness, and resolvability of prediction markets on Trueo by ensuring that only markets with clear, objective, and ethically permissible resolution criteria are eligible for settlement.

A market that fails these standards may not be resolved to "Yes" or "No" regardless of what occurred in the real world. Such markets must instead resolve to "Cancelled."

Resolution Eligibility Principle

A market is eligible for a "Yes" or "No" resolution only if:

1. The market is structurally valid with little room for ambiguity.
2. The market is resolvable using publicly available sources.
3. The market complies with platform integrity standards.
4. The market's title, rules, and sources collectively define a real and coherent event.
5. A reasonable independent observer could determine the correct outcome using the listed resolution criteria.

If any of the above conditions are not met, the market must resolve to "Cancelled."

Cancellation Standards

A market must resolve to "Cancelled" if any of the following conditions are present.

1. Markets invoking violence toward specific individuals

Markets that create direct incentives for harm, criminal conduct, violence, terrorism, harassment, or other dangerous activity towards specific individuals are not eligible for resolution. These markets include but may not be limited to:

• Assassination markets
• Markets rewarding physical injury against specific individuals
• Markets encouraging self-harm
• Markets encouraging criminal activity against specific individuals
• Markets encouraging property destruction against specific individuals
• Markets involving terrorist acts
• Markets involving kidnapping or hostage-taking

If a market that creates direct incentives for any of the above examples is deployed, it must resolve to "Cancelled."

Examples of permitted war-related markets:

• Will Russia launch a missile strike on Kyiv before August?
• Will China initiate a blockade of Taiwan in 2026?
• Will the US conduct military action against Iran before July?
• Will a ceasefire be reached in Gaza before September?
• Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
• Will Iran and Israel agree to a peace agreement before 2027?

Prohibited:

• Will a specific individual be assassinated before July?
• Will a journalist be kidnapped?
• Will a named private citizen commit suicide?
• Will a terrorist attack kill more than 100 people in London next month?
• Will someone burn down a specific building?

2. Privacy violations

Markets involving private information about non-public persons are prohibited. Examples include:

• Medical conditions
• Financial information
• Residential information
• Personal information
• Employment status of private individuals
• Identity disclosure or doxxing
• Criminal accusations not established through public proceedings

Public figures may be the subject of markets only when the event concerns information that is or will be public and independently verifiable.

Markets violating privacy standards must resolve to "Cancelled."

3. Non-binary markets

Markets must ultimately resolve to a single Yes-or-No determination, or a Draw/Push. Markets that require multiple outcomes, ranking outcomes, subjective scoring, or comparative judgments are invalid.

Invalid:

• Which candidate will win?
• Which company will have the highest valuation?
• Rank the top three cryptocurrencies.

Valid:

• Will Candidate A win the election?
• Will Company X be the most valuable company in the world in 2026?
• Will XMR be a top 3 cryptocurrency in 2026?

Non-binary markets must resolve to "Cancelled."

4. No clear event and resolution date

Markets must contain both a clearly defined event and a clearly defined resolution deadline/expiry. Markets lacking either are unresolvable.

Invalid:

• Will Ethereum reach $100,000 one day?
• Will OpenAI eventually achieve AGI?

Valid:

• Will Ethereum reach $100,000 before 2030?
• Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028?

Markets lacking a clear expiry must resolve to "Cancelled."

5. Ambiguous events

Markets must identify specific, publicly verifiable events. Examples of ambiguity include:

• Undefined terminology
• Missing key criteria necessary for resolution
• Illegible, incoherent, or contradictory rules
• Grammar errors that materially impact resolution interpretation
• Contradictory criteria
• Subjective criteria
• Non-existent or made-up events

Markets lacking specific events and definitions must resolve to "Cancelled."

6. Contradictory market terms

The title, rules, and sources must not materially conflict.

Example A

• Title: Will BTC hit $200K?
• Rules: Resolves Yes at $150K.

Example B

• Title: Will BTC hit $200K?
• Rules: Resolves Yes at $200K.
• Source: XRP/USDT price on Binance.

Example C

• Title: Will OpenAI IPO in 2026?
• Rules: Market expiry is in 2030.

If a reasonable resolver cannot determine which language defines the resolution criteria, or cannot verify the event using the cited sources, the market must resolve to "Cancelled."

7. Unreliable or missing resolution sources

Markets must contain credible, publicly available resolution sources.

Acceptable public sources include:

• Official government communications
• Official communications from entities related to the event
• Official sports league data
• Blockchain data
• Official court records
• Official exchange data
• Credible data providers
• Credible news outlets
• Consensus of credible reports

Invalid sources:

• Private correspondence
• Private documents
• Non-public disclosures
• Secret information
• Unobservable events
• Unrecognized news outlets or data providers

Markets lacking any public and credible resolution source must resolve to "Cancelled."

8. Impossible or unverifiable resolution criteria

Markets must be capable of public verification.

Invalid:

• Will a politician privately regret a decision?
• Did Elon Musk brush his teeth yesterday?

Markets that cannot be publicly verified must resolve to "Cancelled."

9. Resolution depends on overly subjective interpretation

Resolvers must not be required to speculate about intent, beliefs, emotions, motivations, fairness, popularity, or similar subjective concepts.

Invalid:

• Was the election fair?
• Did Company X act responsibly?
• Is AI conscious?

Valid:

• Will a court rule that the senatorial election had integrity issues in 2026?
• Will a court rule that Company X operated with negligence before 2027?
• Will AI be proven to be conscious by a publicly peer-reviewed and reproducible academic publication before 2030?

Overly subjective markets must resolve to "Cancelled."

10. Retroactive resolution eligibility failure

Markets must be capable of resolving based only on events occurring after deployment whenever timing is relevant.

Invalid:

• Will Bitcoin hit $100K before June 2026? — Bitcoin has already exceeded $100K before the market was deployed, and the rules do not specify post-deployment eligibility.

Markets that cannot distinguish between pre-deployment and post-deployment events may be resolved to "Cancelled."

11. Event cancellation or permanent impossibility

A market may resolve to "Cancelled" when the underlying event itself is cancelled and the rules do not otherwise specify a resolution method. Examples:

• Sporting event permanently cancelled
• Election permanently cancelled
• Corporate transaction abandoned and no alternative resolution pathway exists
• Scheduled event ceases to exist

Where the market's own rules specify a "No" outcome under such circumstances, those rules take precedence.

Resolver Standard

When evaluating a market, resolvers should ask:

1. Is the market ethical and permitted?
2. Is the market binary?
3. Is the event publicly verifiable?
4. Is there a definitive resolution deadline?
5. Are the rules, title, and sources internally consistent, coherent, and complete?
6. Are credible resolution sources available?
7. Can a reasonable independent observer determine the outcome?
8. Is the market overly subjective?
9. Does the market rule out pre-deployment resolution eligibility?
10. Does the market satisfy the Trueo market creation framework?

If the answer to any of the above questions is "No," the market should generally resolve to "Cancelled."

Guiding Principle

The purpose of a prediction market is to allow participants to speculate on publicly verifiable events.

Whenever a market cannot be resolved fairly, verifiably, consistently, or safely, cancellation is preferred over forcing an incorrect or unethical "Yes" or "No" outcome.

Whenever a market directly encourages targeted dangerous or harmful events, the market must be cancelled.